Another day, another record high in international oil prices. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark crude, has hit by some measures its highest ever price in real terms. Its relentless surge poses a conundrum for Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, which meets on Wednesday in Vienna to review output quotas.

Yet member states, to the disappointment of consuming nations, are not discussing a quota increase to damp prices. Instead, they are expected either to cut oil production or to keep to their existing limits.

Opec ministers argue that, while US consumption may be slowing, the world is awash with crude after a temperate winter. Recent data show that inventories are rising. To raise output now could therefore drive prices sharply lower.

The sharp run-up in oil prices, they say, is speculative, driven by investors buying into commodities as a hedge against the falling dollar and a rise in inflation.

This may be true. But it is also an analysis that speaks to the growing influence of Opec’s hawkish members, including Algeria and Venezuela, which want prices to stay at $100 a barrel or more. With prices so high, the discussion on whether to cut quotas will only add to price volatility. It is at odds with the cartel’s desire to be seen as a stabilising force in the market.

Higher oil prices have yet to feed through into higher inflation expectations. The world is less dependent on crude than it was when the previous inflation-adjusted record was set in April 1980. It is possible to overstate the economic risks and the extent of Opec’s influence.

Even if the cartel raised output, it is far from certain crude would fall much below $100 a barrel. Strong Asian demand provides fundamental support. Only a severe US slowdown would remove that. There is a question mark, too, over how much extra oil Opec can actually pump.

The much bigger problem – for producers and consumers alike – is a chronic lack of investment in upstream supply infrastructure. This under-investment will constrain Opec’s ability to meet global demand in the long term. Beyond the surging spot price are faster rises in futures contracts for delivery several years ahead, evidence of market concern that tightness will last.

Many Opec members lack the technology to extract new reserves. But their restrictions on western involvement mean international oil companies are investing in more accessible fields such as Canadian oil sands, which will take longer to develop. As long as this remains the case, fears of supply constraints are probably well founded.